⬇️ Prefer to listen instead? ⬇️
A recent study published in the Journal of Marriage and Family has reinforced an established yet increasingly significant trend in American politics: unmarried voters overwhelmingly align with the Democratic Party. This split has widened over the years, influenced by demographic shifts and ideological factors. The study pinpoints race and religiosity as two pivotal explanations for this divide, offering insight into how personal identity and societal structures shape political preferences and influence election outcomes.
The Historical Marital-Political Divide
The link between marital status and voting patterns has been observed for decades. However, the extent of this divide has expanded considerably since the 1980s. In the 1984 presidential election, never-married individuals were only slightly more likely to support Democrats than their married counterparts—a modest difference of about 4 percentage points. By the 2020 election, that gap had ballooned to nearly 20 percentage points (Vilbig, England, & Hout, 2024).
Several factors have intensified this divide over time:
- Demographic Shifts: Unmarried individuals have become more racially diverse, a shift that correlates with increased Democratic support.
- Cultural Changes: The growing acceptance of progressive social policies has influenced younger, unmarried voters to align with the Democratic Party.
- Economic Factors: Financial independence and economic uncertainty impact voting preferences, often making unmarried voters more supportive of policies that promote social safety nets.
This ongoing separation suggests that marital status is not just a personal decision but also a key predictor of political behavior.
The Role of Racial Demographics in Voting Behavior
One of the most profound factors shaping the political leanings of unmarried voters is race. Research indicates that unmarried individuals are disproportionately Black, a demographic that strongly supports Democratic candidates. Conversely, married voters are more likely to be White, with lower levels of Democratic support.
How Racial Composition Has Changed Over Time
- In 1984, approximately 85% of never-married voters were White.
- By 2020, that number had dropped to just 60%, marking a significant shift in the racial makeup of unmarried voters.
This transformation is critical in explaining voting patterns. Historically, Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters have leaned Democratic. As the share of White unmarried voters has declined and the number of racially diverse unmarried voters has risen, Democratic support among this group has grown stronger.
The Persistent Racial Voting Divide
Race is one of the most reliable predictors of voting behavior in the U.S.:
- In recent elections, over 90% of Black voters have supported Democratic candidates.
- Hispanic and Asian voters also overwhelmingly favor Democrats, though by slightly smaller margins.
- White voters remain more evenly split, but those who are married are significantly more likely to support Republicans.
This racial realignment in the unmarried population has played a crucial role in widening the gap between married and unmarried voters in political preferences.
The Influence of Religiosity on the Marital Voting Gap
The second major factor influencing voting behavior among married and unmarried voters is religiosity. Traditionally, individuals who regularly attend religious services are far more likely to support the Republican Party.
Why Unmarried Voters Are Less Religious
- Lower Church Attendance: Unmarried individuals, especially younger ones, attend religious services far less frequently than their married counterparts.
- Secularization Trends: Younger generations in the U.S. are becoming increasingly secular regardless of marital status.
- Religious Affiliation Decline: The number of Americans identifying as religiously unaffiliated has risen sharply, and this trend is more pronounced among unmarried individuals.
The Impact of Religiosity on Political Beliefs
- Republican Support Among the Religious: Frequent churchgoers are more likely to oppose progressive social policies on issues like abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, and gender roles—aligning with Republican values.
- Democratic Support Among the Less Religious: Less religious individuals tend to prioritize policies related to social justice, economic equality, and secular governance, aligning them with the Democratic Party.
Interestingly, among Black voters, religious observance does not significantly influence party preference. Black voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of marital status or religious affiliation. This indicates that race often supersedes religiosity in shaping political preferences within this demographic.
Why Has the Marital Voting Gap Increased Over Time?
The growing divide between married and unmarried voters is not just a random development—it reflects broader societal transformations.
Key Contributors to the Expanding Gap
- Shifts in Racial Composition
- As noted earlier, the decline in White unmarried voters and the increase in non-White unmarried voters have strengthened Democratic support among the unmarried population.
- The Rise of Secularism
- Younger generations, who form a large portion of unmarried voters, are becoming increasingly secular. The decline of organized religion has weakened traditional conservative values and bolstered left-leaning ideologies.
- Marriage Rate Decline and Delays
- Economic instability, shifting gender roles, and cultural changes have led to more Americans delaying or forgoing marriage altogether. Given the strong correlation between marital status and political alignment, this shift naturally benefits the Democratic Party.
Alternative Explanations for the Trend
Although race and religiosity are dominant factors, other sociological and psychological influences may also contribute to this divide:
- Economic Status: Some hypothesize that unmarried individuals prefer Democratic policies due to lower household incomes and greater reliance on social programs. However, studies show this is a minor factor compared to race and religiosity.
- Gender and Family Values: Those who challenge traditional family structures and gender roles tend to vote more progressively. Marriage often reinforces more traditional perspectives, influencing political leanings.
- Education Levels: Higher education levels among unmarried individuals contribute to their preference for socially progressive policies, which align with the Democratic Party’s platform.
Implications for Future Elections
As marriage rates decline and the number of unmarried voters continues to grow, political parties must adjust their strategies to remain competitive.
How Political Parties Can Respond
- Democrats: With unmarried voters making up a growing share of the electorate, the Democratic Party can capitalize on this trend by advocating policies that address issues important to single individuals, like healthcare, affordable housing, and social equality.
- Republicans: The GOP must find ways to appeal to unmarried voters, potentially by focusing on economic messages or addressing concerns beyond traditional family values.
- Long-Term Shifts: If the trends continue, the Democratic advantage among unmarried voters could play a defining role in shaping electoral outcomes for the next several decades.
The political divide between married and unmarried voters is largely driven by racial demographics and religiosity. As unmarried voters become more racially diverse and secular trends continue, their Democratic alignment appears poised to strengthen even further. Understanding these trends is essential for both political strategists and the general public, as shifting demographics will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of American elections.
FAQs
How does marital status influence political preferences?
Married individuals tend to vote more Republican, while unmarried voters are significantly more likely to support Democratic candidates.
Why do unmarried voters lean more Democratic?
Unmarried voters are disproportionately composed of racial minorities and less religious individuals—both of whom are more likely to vote Democratic.
What role do race and religiosity play in this political divide?
Race is a major factor, with Black voters overwhelmingly supporting Democrats. Additionally, unmarried individuals tend to be less religious, which correlates with Democratic political preferences.
How has this voting pattern changed over time?
Since the 1980s, the gap between married and unmarried voters has widened, with nearly a 20 percentage point difference in Democratic support by 2020.
Are there other sociological or psychological explanations for these differences?
Attitudes toward gender roles, family structure, and education levels may also contribute to the divide, though they were not the primary focus of the study.
Citation
- Vilbig, K., England, P., & Hout, M. (2024). Unmarried Americans vote more Democratic than their married counterparts: The role of race and religiosity in the marital gap. Journal of Marriage and Family. https://doi.org/10.1111/jomf.13058
